Dystopic - Does the U.S. have a Weapons Stockpile and Production Crisis?
Published about 2 months ago • 9 min read
July 10, 2025
Dystopic Newsletter
Does the U.S. have a Weapons Stockpile and Production Crisis?
Flames and smoke billow from buildings during mass Russian drone and missile strikes in Kyiv, Ukraine, July 4, 2025. Source: State Emergency Service of Ukraine
Before we begin this week's Dystopic – An update on my book:
How The Hell Did We Get Here?A Citizen's Guide to The New Cold War and Rebuilding of Deterrence
Positive reviews keep coming in …
5 Star Amazon Review - #HowTheHellBook
How The Hell Did We Get Here? is available on Amazon USA HERE, Amazon Internationally (on your local Amazon page), or through Barnes & Noble and other major retailers online.
I hope you choose to read the book; if you do, please leave a review.
I also held a Virtual Book Launch Party on Thursday, June 26th. I wanted to thank everyone who attended. If you missed the party, a link to the video of the Virtual Book Launch Party is HERE
Now, back to our regularly scheduled dystopic …
What A Difference A Week Makes …
Between Tuesday, July 1st, and Tuesday, July 8th, U.S. policy on weapons shipments to Ukraine did a complete 180-degree change in direction. Instead of standing aside and letting the Russia-Ukraine War play itself out, Vladimir Putin's brutal attacks on civilians finally forced President Trump to reconsider his policy.
To understand this titanic shift in U.S. policy, let's briefly review the week's events.
Tuesday, July 1 - Elbridge Colby, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, was reportedly behind the decision to axe the military aid to Ukraine. Secretary Colby has consistently attempted to shift U.S. strategic focus to China and deemphasize the U.S. focus on Europe and the Middle East.
Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell later added that “For a long time…we were giving away weapons and munitions without really thinking about how many we have…Part of our job is to give the president a framework that he can use to evaluate how many munitions we have and where we’re sending them.”
Was this arms embargo executed to give Putin an “offramp” and a way to accept a ceasefire?Very Likely.
Does the U.S. need to worry that it is burning through its weapons stockpile and does not have the manufacturing capacity to replace them?Also Very Likely – which we will explore in this Dystopic
Tuesday, July 3 – Trump has an unproductive call with Putin. After the call, Trump noted, "We had a call. It was a pretty long call. We discussed a variety of topics, including Iran, and also touched on the ongoing war in Ukraine, as you are aware. And I'm not happy about that, I'm not happy!" Trump went on to say, “ I didn't make any progress with him today at all.”
Monday, July 7 - Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said: “At President Trump’s direction, the Department of Defense is sending additional defensive weapons to Ukraine to ensure the Ukrainians can defend themselves while we work to secure a lasting peace and ensure the killing stops.”
This marks a 180-degree about-face in President Trump's policy and likely signals the end of Trump pressuring President Volodymyr Zelensky to provide concessions to bring Putin to the negotiating table and achieve a ceasefire. Putin set his message to Trump on July 3rd in his attack on Kyiv, a massive rejection of Trump’s plea for a ceasefire. Putin is not interested in peace. This is not a surprise; historically, authoritarian dictators only understand force. So much for taking Trump’s diplomatic “Offramp” and a hand offered in peace. Despite other pressing needs in the Western Pacific to counter China, U.S. weapons stockpiles will be required to bolster Ukraine. The grinding blood bath of the Ukraine-Russia War will continue with 5000 dead and wounded every day- TRAGIC.
Putin should beware – President Trump allowed 60 days of negotiations to remove Iran’s nuclear weapons. They rejected him. When Israel went to war, Trump reached out to negotiate one final time. Still, Iran rejected his offers. And just like that, Trump ordered Operation Midnight Hammer, and Iran’s Nuclear Facilities were destroyed by a massive U.S. air armada and submarine-based Tomahawk cruise missile attack … Putin may regret refusing the “hand of peace” when it was offered.
That brings us to the main topic of this week's newsletter:
Is the U.S. facing a weapons stockpile and production crisis?
There are large kernels of truth in last week's initial decision by Elbridge Colby, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, to halt weapons shipments to Ukraine, and Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell stated that the U.S. needs to rationalize its stockpile of weapons resources.
According to Tectonic Defense, a military aerospace newsletter, Secretary Colby was withholding the following weapons:
30 PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancements (MSE), an advanced missile interceptor part of the Patriot missile defense system
8496 155mm rounds
142 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, often used against tanks and other armored vehicles
252 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) precision-guided rockets, a key component of the HIMARS platform in use by Ukraine’s military
25 Stinger surface-to-air missiles
125 AT-4 recoilless anti-tank guns
At first, glance 92 AIM-7 Sparrows and 30 Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles don’t seem to be quantities large enough to make a difference in U.S. anti-missile weapons stockpiles – perhaps this decision was entirely political? This would explain the quick reversal by President Trump.
However, that doesn’t mean the U.S. isn’t caught in a crisis of weapons stockpiles and production. Since it is Dystopic, let's take a deeper look at several critical missile systems.
The Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM)
The Tomahawk is the U.S.’s premier “stand-off” land attack missile and for good reason. As the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) notes, “The Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) can be fired from submarines or ships with a range of over 900 miles. Tomahawks, therefore, serve as the Navy’s primary land-attack capability without putting aviators at risk.
While the Navy does have a large existing stockpile of Tomahawks to sustain its land-attack capability, it has recently been firing the missiles faster than it can replace them.”
Case in point:
Operation Rough Rider - day 1, the U.S Navy attacks on Iran proxy, the Houthis in Yemen, 80 Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched on January 11, 2024, at the start of the operation
Operation Rough Rider – continued operations, Carrier Strike Group 2 launched 135 Tomahawks through July 2024. Navy strikes intensified until a ceasefire was agreed upon in May 2025.
Operation Midnight Hammer, June 21, 2025, submarines reportedly fired 30 TLAMs at Iranian nuclear sites.
Total Tomahawks expended by the U.S. Navy over 18 months: ~ 245 and possibly more, as the U.S. Navy does not publish
A look at the production figures tabulated by AEI shows the U.S has only produced ~ 250 Tomahawks since 2021.
In short, we are burning 4 years of production in 18 months – this is a serious problem!
Tomahawk Cruise Missile Production (Source AEI)
Patriot air defense system and PAC-3 MSE Interceptor
Other than Israel's Iron Dome short-range air defense system, which engages targets from 4 to 70 kilometers (2.5 to 43 miles), Patriot is the workhorse mid-range anti-aircraft/ anti-missile system for the U.S. and its Allies, including Israel.
The Patriot air defense system and its PAC-3 MSE (Missile Segment Enhancement) Interceptor are capable of engaging:
Aircraft and cruise missiles at a range of 120 km (75 miles)
Ballistic missiles at a range of 30 km (19 miles) limited by its flight ceiling of 36 km
The U.S. has two constraints concerning the Patriot System.
The first, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is the number of complete patriot systems available worldwide. In order to protect U.S. Middle East partners (UAE, Israel, etc) from Iran and ongoing attacks by the Houthis in Yemen, the U.S had to move a Patriot battalion from Asia.
A typical Patriot battalion contains four batteries, each with 4 to 6 truck-mounted launchers, and each launcher carries 16 PAC-3 MSE interceptors, for a total of 256 to 384 interceptors.
The Army only has 17 Patriot battalions in total – so by moving a battalion from Asia to the Middle East, the U.S. is “robbing Peter to pay Paul” - removing defense in one area to provide it in another.
The second constraint, according to the Guardian, is the interceptors themselves. Starting with the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, the U.S. has been burning through its stockpile of PAC-3 MSE interceptors in the Middle East. The U.S only has about 25% of the Patriot missile interceptors it needs for all of the Pentagon’s military plans.
As an example, on the last day of the 12-Day War between Iran and Israel, Iran fired 14 ballistic missiles at the Air base at Al Udeid in Qatar. The U.S. countered with one of the largest Patriot salvoes on record. Approximately 30 PAC-3-MSE interceptor missiles completely thwarted the Iranian attack.
The problem is that 30 interceptors are ~5% of Lockheed Martin’s record 2024 annual production capacity of 650 PAC-3 MSE interceptors. Again, the U.S. is depleting its interceptor stockpiles and outstripping production.
Considering these constraints, it is no wonder that Elbridge Colby, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, wanted to stop the shipment of 30 PAC-3 MSE interceptors to Ukraine. The U.S. does not have the 5% annual production to spare.
The situation is nearly identical for the U.S. Army THAAD system. Based on a report by Military Watch Magazine, action in the Middle East has depleted 15% to 20% of the global THAAD arsenal of 900 TALON interceptors. Given that the annual production of THAAD TALONs is 80 to 90 interceptors per year. Again, we are burning through over 2 years of production in a single year
U.S. Navy Standard Missile SM-3 IIA
As a final example, we will return to the U.S. Navy and its Standard Missile 3 Block IIA interceptor.
The SM-3 IIA interceptors are specifically designed to intercept ballistic missiles in outer space (exo-atmospheric) engagements at long range. These interceptor missiles have a range of approximately 2,500 km (1,550 miles). Combined with the Navy’s Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System and its AN/SPY-1 Phase Array Radar, SM-3 II interceptors are the ideal weapon to knock down medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) Iran fired in the 12-Day War and in 2 early massive salvos directly at Israel.
In my last Dystopic, The 12-Day War and Its Costs, I presented a scenario in which the U.S. Navy likely used up to 83 SM-3 IIA interceptors to knock down 15% of the 550 ballistic Missiles Iran fired at Israel. Based on data collected by CSIS, this represents as much as 5 years of SM-3 IIA production.
THIS would create a critical shortage for the U.S. Navy. Hopefully, the Navy used a mix of SM-3 1B and SM-3 IIA interceptors.
US SM-3 Production (source CSIS – Missile Defense Project)
Conclusions and Other Thoughts
Does the U.S. Weapons Stockpile and Production Crisis? YES!
This simple analysis makes it very clear that the U.S. needs to significantly increase the production of its anti-missile interceptors and the air defense systems themselves. Thankfully, the new U.S. Defense Budget added $150 billion in funding, much of which is earmarked to address this critical problem.
Let's hope the situation in the Taiwan Straits remains calm and we avoid a “shooting war’ in the next 12 to 24 months so that interceptor stockpiles can be replenished.
Meanwhile, we are left with a few open questions:
To what extent will the U.S. increase arms shipments to Ukraine? Exactly how many casualties will it take to force Putin to finally seek peace?
We have a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, but we do not have a final peace agreement and a concession from Iran to dismantle Iran's nuclear program completely. There are over 400 Kg of 60% enriched uranium unaccounted for. We head back to war, or can Iran accept a final peace?
I’m sure the world will present even more problems and issues for us to examine
I'll be in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, China next week. So until a bitlater thann Next week ...
Dystopic- The Technology Behind Today's News
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How The Hell Did We Get Here? A Citizen's Guide to The New Cold War and Rebuilding of Deterrence
Available on Amazon USA HERE, Amazon Internationally (on your local Amazon page), or through Barnes & Noble and other major retailers online
